• Listen now
  • Episodes
  • Learn
    • Newsletter
  • Resources
  • About
    • Contact
Trading Justice

Trading Justice

Control Your Financial Future

Markets. Perspective. Process.

Explore the podcast →

Planned Risk Is Not the Same as Worst-Case Risk

October 21, 2026 By Tim Justice Leave a Comment

Office towers seen from below
Photo by Sean Pollock on Unsplash. Illustrative image.

A position-size worksheet can produce a very precise number from very uncertain assumptions. That does not make the worksheet useless. It means you should label what it calculates: planned risk under specified conditions.

Know what the arithmetic assumes

For a simple hypothetical stock example, suppose the entry is $40 and the intended exit is $38. Dividing a $300 planned loss budget by the $2 price difference produces 150 shares, before costs. The calculation assumes those prices describe the relevant entry and exit.

If the eventual exit is $35, the price loss on 150 shares is $750, not $300. A stop order cannot promise the planned price. Other instruments require different calculations; a stock worksheet is not a universal model for options or futures.

Add a stress scenario

Ask what happens if trading jumps past the intended exit, liquidity disappears, or an exchange halts the security. A stress scenario is not a forecast or a complete list of possible outcomes. It tests whether you understand how the position could behave when an assumption fails.

Include the cash and account consequences. A leveraged position can create demands beyond the initial outlay. Options can introduce exercise, assignment, and contract-specific obligations. Read the product disclosures and your broker’s rules before treating a quoted buying-power figure as the full economic risk.

Review the portfolio, not just the line item

Several individually small positions may depend on the same company, industry, currency, or broad market movement. Adding their separate planned losses may still understate what could happen in a shared shock.

The SEC notes that diversification involves more than owning multiple funds: overlapping holdings can leave exposures concentrated. Diversification can reduce some concentration risks, but it does not prevent losses when markets decline.

Use a two-line risk note

Write one line for the intended loss calculation and a second for the assumptions that could make the loss larger. Include costs, the order type, relevant events, and related positions. If the second line is blank because you do not know the product mechanics, that is a research task.

There is no universal percentage that makes a trade appropriate for every person or makes account failure impossible. The consequences of loss depend on financial needs, leverage, other obligations, and the distribution of outcomes. A risk budget is a constraint on a decision, not a certificate of safety.

Read the SEC guidance on asset allocation and diversification and stop orders alongside the broader trading plan.

For structured education, explore Tackle Trading’s upcoming webinars and 15-day PRO trial. Trading Justice LLC and Tackle Trading LLC are separate businesses under common ownership.

General education, not individualized investment advice. Investing and trading involve risk. Options and leveraged products can involve substantial losses and obligations.

Please share!
  • facebook
  • linkedin
  • twitter
  • google+

Subscribe to Trading Justice!

About Tim Justice

Tim Justice is a trader, educator, Master Trainer, keynote speaker, and partner at Tackle Trading. He co-owns and co-hosts Trading Justice with Matt Justice, a financial markets podcast they have built together for more than a decade.

Tim writes and teaches about market structure, trading psychology, risk management, and the practical work of building a repeatable trading process. His approach connects clear thinking with preparation, disciplined execution, and honest review of both decisions and results.

His work also draws on sports officiating and philosophy to explore how people make decisions under pressure. Through Trading Justice, he helps listeners and readers develop their understanding of markets and become more thoughtful, systematic participants.

Related

  • The Four Core Trading Principles
  • Trade Planning Checklist
  • Episode 350: Managing Call Options
  • Episode 357: Option Trades on Earnings
  • Time: Ten investment tips for the next ten years | Trading Justice Newsletter Vol. 28
  • Episode 360: Portfolio Design

Leave a Reply Cancel reply


The reCAPTCHA verification period has expired. Please reload the page.

Learn with Tackle Trading

Explore upcoming webinars or start a 15-day PRO trial.

View upcoming webinars

Explore the 15-day PRO trial

Trial requires a credit card and renews at $147/month unless canceled. Review current terms at Tackle Trading.

Trading Justice LLC and Tackle Trading LLC are separate businesses with common ownership.

Browse by month

Explore Trading Justice

  • All podcast episodes
  • Learn articles & tools
  • Interviews
  • Economics
  • Strategies
  • Mindset
  • Book Club
  • Newsletter archive

LEARN THE MARKETS, READ OUR NEWSLETTER >>>

Copyright © 2026 Trading Justice
Risk Disclosure · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy